{"id":4035,"date":"2015-11-25T10:10:19","date_gmt":"2015-11-25T06:10:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.acf100.org\/?p=4035"},"modified":"2015-11-25T10:10:19","modified_gmt":"2015-11-25T06:10:19","slug":"%e5%9c%9f%e8%80%b3%e5%85%b6%e6%93%8a%e8%90%bd%e4%bf%84%e5%9c%8b%e6%88%b0%e6%a9%9f%ef%bc%9a%e6%99%ae%e4%ba%ac%e6%ad%a3%e8%ac%80%e5%8f%8d%e6%93%8a%ef%bc%8c%e5%8c%97%e7%b4%84%e7%b7%8a%e6%80%a5%e6%9c%83","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/acf100.org\/?p=4035","title":{"rendered":"\u571f\u8033\u5176\u64ca\u843d\u4fc4\u570b\u6230\u6a5f\uff1a\u666e\u4eac\u6b63\u8b00\u53cd\u64ca\uff0c\u5317\u7d04\u7dca\u6025\u6703\u8b70\uff0c\u6703\u6709\u54ea\u4e9b\u98a8\u96aa\uff1f  2015-11-25 \u591a\u806f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><script type=\"text\/javascript\">\/\/ <![CDATA[\n \n    var page_begintime = (+new Date());\n\n    var biz = \"MzI3MDA0NjcxMQ==\";\n    var sn = \"8f4aabc07dfbf00b593cf3432a34da88\" || \"\";\n    var mid = \"400444335\" || \"\";\n    var idx = \"1\" || \"\" 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decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/mmbiz.qpic.cn\/mmbiz\/KN1EbicJq7h52uiapAkicETymRcW5bY2cITlyW85UzoxZ5Hm9esKvRfmsuzRJxk0Q8csvRSJtIMEfmQ7bCKQk9bLg\/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1\" alt=\"\" data-src=\"http:\/\/mmbiz.qpic.cn\/mmbiz\/KN1EbicJq7h52uiapAkicETymRcW5bY2cITlyW85UzoxZ5Hm9esKvRfmsuzRJxk0Q8csvRSJtIMEfmQ7bCKQk9bLg\/0?wx_fmt=jpeg\" data-type=\"jpeg\" data-w=\"\" data-ratio=\"0.5629496402877698\" data-s=\"300,640\" \/><\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\u5317\u7d04\u79d8\u66f8\u9577\u65af\u6258\u723e\u6ed5\u8c9d\u683c\u5728\u5e03\u9b6f\u585e\u723e\u5c0d\u5a92\u9ad4\u8b1b\u8a71\u3002\uff082015\u5e7411\u670824\u65e5\uff09<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6b50\u6d32\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u5b98\u5011\u8868\u793a\u9031\u4e8c\u7684\u6230\u6a5f\u88ab\u64ca\u843d\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6b63\u662f\u4ed6\u5011\u4e00\u76f4\u64d4\u5fc3\u767c\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5317\u7d04\u548c\u7f8e\u570b\u5b98\u65b9\u4e00\u76f4\u5805\u6301\u8a8d\u70ba\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u5728\u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u5c55\u958b\u7684\u7a7a\u8972\u884c\u52d5\u4e3b\u8981\u90fd\u662f\u5728\u6253\u64ca\u53cd\u5c0d\u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u7e3d\u7d71\u963f\u85a9\u5fb7\u7684\u53cd\u6297\u6b66\u88dd\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u5ba3\u7a31\u7684\u6253\u64ca\u201c\u4f0a\u65af\u862d\u570b\u201d\u6050\u6016\u5206\u5b50\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u548c\u571f\u8033\u5176\u908a\u5883\u4e00\u5e36\u4e0a\u7a7a\u64e0\u6eff\u4e86\u53cd\u201c\u4f0a\u65af\u862d\u570b\u201d\u806f\u76df\u3001\u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u3001\u571f\u8033\u5176\u548c\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u57f7\u884c\u8f5f\u70b8\u4efb\u52d9\u7684\u6230\u6a5f\u3002\u5f9e9\u6708\u9593\u8ecd\u4e8b\u4ecb\u5165\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u5df2\u7d93\u5728\u88ab\u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u4e0a\u7a7a\u51fa\u52d5\u4e86\u6578\u767e\u67b6\u6b21\u7684\u98db\u6a5f\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u201c\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u4e82\u5c40\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u53ef\u9810\u77e5\u7684\uff0c\u201d\u83ef\u76db\u9813\u667a\u5eab\u634d\u885b\u6c11\u4e3b\u57fa\u91d1\u6703\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u55ac\u7d0d\u68ee\u2022\u5c1a\u7b56\uff08Jonathan Schanzer\uff09\u8aaa\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5c1a\u7b56\u9084\u8aaa\uff1a\u201c\u6709\u90a3\u9ebc\u591a\u6230\u6a5f\u5728\u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u4e0a\u7a7a\uff0c\u767c\u751f\u722d\u57f7\u5e7e\u4e4e\u662f\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u201d\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4ed6\u8aaa\uff0c\u64ca\u843d\u98db\u6a5f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u9020\u6210\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u640d\u5bb3\u53ef\u80fd\u5c31\u662f11\u670813\u65e5\u5df4\u9ece\u8972\u64ca\u5f8c\u897f\u65b9\u8207\u83ab\u65af\u79d1\u95dc\u4fc2\u7565\u5fae\u56de\u6696\u7684\u5c40\u9762\u3002\u6cd5\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u5967\u6717\u5fb7\u8a66\u5716\u8b93\u83ef\u76db\u9813\u548c\u83ab\u65af\u79d1\u8d70\u5f97\u66f4\u8fd1\u4e00\u4e9b\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u66f4\u6709\u529b\u5730\u6253\u64ca\u201c\u4f0a\u65af\u862d\u570b\u201d\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u7a2e\u52aa\u529b\u53ef\u80fd\u56e0\u6b64\u812b\u8ecc\u4e86\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5c1a\u7b56\u8b66\u544a\u8aaa\uff0c\u201c\u6cd5\u570b\u6700\u8fd1\u60f3\u628a\u83ab\u65af\u79d1\u5438\u5f15\u5230\u5168\u7403\u53cd&#8217;\u4f0a\u65af\u862d\u570b&#8217;\u806f\u76df\u4e2d\u4f86\uff0c\u98db\u6a5f\u88ab\u64ca\u843d\u986f\u7136\u628a\u9019\u7a2e\u52aa\u529b\u7d66\u652a\u4e82\u4e86\u3002\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6709\u95dc\u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u554f\u984c\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u52aa\u529b<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6b50\u6d32\u5b98\u54e1\u8aaa\uff0c\u9019\u8d77\u4e8b\u4ef6\u9084\u53ef\u80fd\u9084\u6703\u6253\u4e82\u7f8e\u570b\u76ee\u524d\u70ba\u5c0b\u627e\u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u653f\u6cbb\u89e3\u6c7a\u65b9\u6848\u800c\u505a\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u52aa\u529b\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u8a66\u5716\u8b93\u6709\u95dc\u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u5167\u6230\u554f\u984c\u7684\u65e5\u5167\u74e6\u6703\u8ac7\u80fd\u5920\u53d6\u5f97\u67d0\u4e9b\u9032\u5c55\u3002\u5916\u4ea4\u5b98\u54e1\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u8a66\u5716\u5c31\u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u904e\u6e21\u8ddf\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u9054\u6210\u67d0\u7a2e\u5171\u8b58\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5728\u5317\u7d04\u6703\u8b70\u4e0a\uff0c\u571f\u8033\u5176\u5b98\u54e1\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u98db\u884c\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u4e26\u8aaa\uff0c\u9019\u8b49\u660e\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u6230\u6a5f\u504f\u822a\u9032\u5165\u4e86\u571f\u8033\u5176\u9818\u7a7a\u3002\u83ab\u65af\u79d1\u5805\u6c7a\u5426\u8a8d\u3002\u514b\u91cc\u59c6\u6797\u5bae\u5805\u6301\u8aaa\uff0c\u90a3\u67b6\u8607-24\u6230\u9b25\u8f5f\u70b8\u6a5f\u5f9e\u4f86\u4e5f\u6c92\u6709\u504f\u96e2\u904e\u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u9818\u7a7a\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u6b63\u5728\u571f\u8033\u5176\u908a\u754c\u9644\u8fd1\u7684\u62c9\u5854\u57fa\u4e9e\u5c71\u5c55\u958b\u7a7a\u8972\u884c\u52d5\uff0c\u8eca\u81e3\u6fc0\u9032\u5206\u5b50\u4e00\u76f4\u76e4\u8e1e\u5728\u90a3\u88e1\uff0c\u4e26\u8ddf\u53cd\u963f\u85a9\u5fb7\u7684\u53cd\u653f\u5e9c\u6c11\u5175\u4e26\u80a9\u4f5c\u6230\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u53cd\u653f\u5e9c\u6b66\u88dd\u53cd\u99c1\u4e86\u4fc4\u65b9\u7684\u8aaa\u6cd5\uff0c\u4e26\u8aaa\uff0c\u90a3\u67b6\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u6230\u6a5f\u88ab\u64ca\u843d\u524d\uff0c\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u5728\u8f5f\u70b8\u62c9\u5854\u57fa\u4e9e\u5c71\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5728\u9130\u8fd1\u7684\u4f0a\u5fb7\u5229\u535c\u7701\u7a7a\u8972\u5409\u65af\u723e\u8212\u53e4\u723e\u93ae\uff08Jisr al-Shughur\uff09\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5317\u7d04\u79d8\u66f8\u9577\u8aaa\uff0c\u4ed6\u5f9e\u5176\u5b83\u897f\u65b9\u76df\u570b\u6536\u5230\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u8207\u571f\u8033\u5176\u7684\u6709\u95dc\u8aaa\u6cd5\u4e00\u81f4\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5206\u6790\u4eba\u58eb\u5c1a\u7b56\u8aaa\uff1a\u201c\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u5982\u4eca\u90fd\u5728\u7b49\u8457\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u7684\u53cd\u61c9\u3002\u5982\u679c\u83ab\u65af\u79d1\u5c07\u5176\u8996\u70ba\u84c4\u610f\u7684\u6575\u5c0d\u884c\u52d5\uff0c\u90a3\u5317\u7d04\u5c31\u6703\u88ab\u6372\u9032\u4f86\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u662f\u4e0d\u60c5\u9858\u5730\u88ab\u6372\u9032\u4f86\u3002\u666e\u4eac\u4ecb\u5165\u8907\u96dc\u7684\u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u5167\u6230\u6642\u5c31\u77e5\u9053\u6703\u6709\u60f9\u8457\u5176\u5b83\u8ecd\u968a\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5f8c\u679c\u3002\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u571f\u8033\u5176\u62b1\u6028\u9818\u7a7a\u4e00\u518d\u88ab\u4fb5<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u571f\u8033\u5176\u662f\u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u7e3d\u7d71\u963f\u85a9\u5fb7\u7684\u6b7b\u6575\u3002\u571f\u8033\u5176\u4e00\u518d\u8b66\u544a\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u548c\u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u98db\u6a5f\u4e0d\u8981\u4fb5\u5165\u9818\u7a7a\u3002\u4e0a\u500b\u6708\uff0c\u5b89\u5361\u62c9\u65b9\u9762\u8aaa\uff0c\u571f\u8033\u5176\u7684F-16\u6230\u6a5f\u6514\u622a\u4e86\u4e00\u67b6\u8d8a\u904e\u908a\u754c\u7684\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u5674\u6c23\u5f0f\u98db\u6a5f\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u5169\u67b6\u571f\u8033\u5176\u5674\u6c23\u5f0f\u98db\u6a5f\u66fe\u88ab\u4e00\u67b6\u7c73\u683c-29\u98db\u6a5f\u9a37\u64fe\u3002\u5317\u7d04\u572810\u6708\u9593\u767c\u51fa\u904e\u4e00\u6b21\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u8b74\u8cac\u201c\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u4f5c\u6230\u98db\u6a5f\u4ee4\u4eba\u7121\u6cd5\u63a5\u53d7\u7684\u5c0d\u571f\u8033\u5176\u9818\u7a7a\u7684\u4fb5\u72af\u201d\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u502b\u6566\u7687\u5bb6\u806f\u5408\u8ecd\u7a2e\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u7684\u4e2d\u6771\u4e8b\u52d9\u5c08\u5bb6\u6c99\u7533\u514b\u00b7\u55ac\u4ec0\uff08Shashank Joshi\uff09\u722d\u8faf\u8aaa\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u201c\u6545\u610f\u523a\u63a2\u571f\u8033\u5176\u9818\u7a7a\uff0c\u9019\u65e2\u6709\u8ecd\u4e8b\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u653f\u6cbb\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u201d\u662f\u70ba\u4e86\u6aa2\u9a57\u5317\u7d04\u7684\u6c7a\u5fc3\u548c\u571f\u8033\u5176\u7684\u8ecd\u4e8b\u53cd\u61c9\u6642\u9593\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa\u8aee\u8a62\u516c\u53f8\u7279\u5167\u5967\u60c5\u5831\uff08Teneo Intelligence\uff09\u5728\u7d66\u5546\u696d\u5ba2\u6236\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u8aaa\u660e\u4e2d\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u201c\u96d6\u7136\u5317\u7d04\u5c07\u63d0\u4f9b\u67d0\u4e9b\u5916\u4ea4\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u4f46\u8003\u616e\u5230\u907f\u514d\u8207\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u76f4\u63a5\u5c0d\u6297\u7684\u8feb\u5207\u9700\u8981\uff0c\u5317\u7d04\u9084\u53ef\u80fd\u5411\u571f\u8033\u5176\u65bd\u58d3\uff0c\u8b93\u5176\u63a1\u53d6\u66f4\u70ba\u514b\u5236\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u3002\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u571f\u8033\u5176\u64ca\u843d\u4fc4\u6230\u6a5f \u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u5167\u6230\u6050\u52a0\u5287<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5317\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u516c\u7d04\u7d44\u7e54\uff08NATO\uff09\u6210\u54e1\u571f\u8033\u5176\u4eca\u5929\u64ca\u843d1\u67b6\u98db\u5728\u8207\u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u4ea4\u754c\u4e0a\u7a7a\u7684\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u6230\u6a5f\uff0c\u5f15\u767c\u6558\u570b4\u5e74\u591a\u5167\u6230\u60c5\u52e2\u6050\u6015\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u60e1\u5316\u7684\u7591\u616e\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6cd5\u65b0\u793e\u5831\u5c0e\uff0c\u5b89\u5361\u62c9\u7576\u5c40\u8868\u793a\u9019\u67b6\u6230\u6a5f\u4fb5\u72af\u5176\u9818\u7a7a\uff0c\u4f46\u4fc4\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u666e\u4eac\uff08Vladimir Putin\uff09\u5805\u7a31\u6230\u6a5f\u906d\u64ca\u843d\u6642\u98db\u5728\u6558\u570b\u4e0a\u7a7a\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u25cf\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u6230\u6a5f\u70ba\u4f55\u5728\u90a3\u88e1\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4fc4\u570b\u662f\u53c3\u8207\u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u5167\u6230\u7684\u5e7e\u5927\u5f37\u6b0a\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u6558\u570b4\u5e74\u4f86\u7684\u5167\u6230\u5df2\u767c\u5c55\u70ba\u5340\u57df\u7af6\u722d\u5c0d\u624b\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u4ee3\u7406\u6230\u722d\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u9019\u6b21\u4e8b\u4ef6\u767c\u751f\u7684\u6642\u9593\u9ede\uff0c\u6b63\u503c\u4fc4\u570b\u53c3\u8207\u6558\u570b\u5317\u90e8\u5bc6\u96c6\u8f5f\u70b8\u884c\u52d5\u7684\u6642\u5019\u3002\u571f\u8033\u5176\u66fe\u62b1\u6028\u9019\u5834\u884c\u52d5\u6b83\u53ca\u6558\u570b\u7684\u571f\u5eab\u66fc\u65cf\u3002\u571f\u5eab\u66fc\u65cf\u8207\u5b89\u5361\u62c9\u7576\u5c40\u95dc\u4fc2\u751a\u5bc6\u3002\u4fc4\u570b\u5247\u5805\u7a31\u9019\u6b21\u7a7a\u8972\u76ee\u6a19\u662f\u4f0a\u65af\u862d\u570b\uff08IS\uff09\u8056\u6230\u58eb\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u25cf\u4e8b\u4ef6\u70ba\u4f55\u6703\u767c\u751f\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u666e\u4eac\u8868\u793a\u6230\u6a5f\u5728\u6558\u570b\u96e2\u571f\u570b\u908a\u754c4\u516c\u91cc\u8655\u589c\u6bc0\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u300c\u7d55\u672a\u5a01\u8105\u5230\u571f\u8033\u5176\u300d\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5c08\u5bb6\u8868\u793a\u4fc4\u570b\u4ee5\u5f80\u6709\u6311\u6230\u4ed6\u570b\u9818\u7a7a\u754c\u7dda\u7684\u7d00\u9304\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5728\u6b50\u6d32\u5317\u90e8\u548c\u6771\u90e8\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u82f1\u570b\u667a\u5eab\u7687\u5bb6\u570b\u969b\u4e8b\u52d9\u7814\u7a76\u6240\uff08Chatham House\uff09\u5b78\u8005\u5409\u723e\u65af\uff08Keir Giles\uff09\u5728\u502b\u6566\u63a5\u53d7\u6cd5\u65b0\u793e\u8a2a\u554f\u6307\u51fa\uff1a\u300c\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u975e\u5e38\u6e05\u695a\u5982\u679c\u5b83\u7684\u98db\u6a5f\u771f\u7684\u98db\u9032\u571f\u8033\u5176\u4e0d\u5e0c\u671b\u770b\u5230\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u6f5b\u5728\u98a8\u96aa\u6703\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u3002\u300d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u25cf\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u5982\u4f55\u53cd\u61c9\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4fc4\u570b\u5916\u9577\u5df2\u53d6\u6d88\u571f\u8033\u5176\u8a2a\u554f\uff0c\u83ab\u65af\u79d1\u4e5f\u8b66\u544a\u6c11\u773e\u4e0d\u8981\u5230\u571f\u570b\u65c5\u904a\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u666e\u4eac\u7a31\u64ca\u843d\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7336\u5982\u300c\u6050\u6016\u5206\u5b50\u7684\u540c\u8def\u4eba\u7531\u80cc\u5f8c\u6345\u4e86\u4e00\u5200\u300d\uff0c\u4e26\u8b66\u544a\u6703\u6709\u300c\u56b4\u91cd\u5f8c\u679c\u300d\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4f46\u82f1\u570b\u98a8\u96aa\u5206\u6790\u6a5f\u69cbVerisk Maplecroft\u7684\u6b50\u6d32\u4e2d\u4e9e\u4e3b\u8981\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u9ea5\u9053\u5a01\uff08Daragh McDowell\uff09\u6307\u51fa\uff1a\u300c\u5c0d\u570b\u5167\u6c11\u773e\uff0c\u514b\u6797\u59c6\u6797\u5bae\u6703\u5e0c\u671b\u6e1b\u4f4e\u56e0\u6230\u722d\u6216\u5176\u4ed6\u640d\u5931\u800c\u7522\u751f\u7684\u8ca0\u9762\u5f62\u8c61\u3002\u300d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u25cf\u571f\u8033\u5176\u5982\u4f55\u53cd\u61c9\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6839\u64da\u9ea5\u9053\u5a01\uff0c\u571f\u570b\u53ef\u80fd\u63a1\u53d6\u8f03\u6b63\u9762\u885d\u7a81\u7684\u7acb\u5834\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u300c\u571f\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u827e\u723e\u6bb5\uff08Recep Tayyip Erdogan\uff09\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u4e00\u76f4\u90fd\u5c0d\u4fc4\u570b\u5728\u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u7684\u6574\u9ad4\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5916\u52a0\u4fc4\u570b\u6230\u6a5f\u56fa\u5b9a\u4fb5\u5165\u571f\u570b\u9818\u7a7a\u975e\u5e38\u4e0d\u6eff\u3002\u300d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u300c\u571f\u8033\u5176\u6216\u8a31\u6703\u6a02\u65bc\u628a\u9019\u6b21\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7576\u505a\u6b63\u9762\u5c0d\u6297\u83ab\u65af\u79d1\u7684\u7406\u7531\u3002\u300d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5df4\u9ece\u570b\u969b\u6230\u7565\u7814\u7a76\u9662\uff08IRIS\uff09\u524d\u9662\u9577\u517c\u7814\u7a76\u90e8\u4e3b\u7ba1\u827e\u62c9\u7279\uff08Jean-Claude Allard\uff09\uff0c\u9019\u6b21\u4e8b\u4ef6\u986f\u793a\u571f\u570b\u4e0d\u9858\u52a0\u5165\u4efb\u4f55\u570b\u969b\u7d50\u76df\uff0c\u5171\u540c\u6253\u64ca\u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u7684\u4f0a\u65af\u862d\u570b\u7d44\u7e54\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u25cf\u6703\u6709\u54ea\u4e9b\u98a8\u96aa\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6839\u64da\u5409\u723e\u65af\uff0c\u300c\u73fe\u968e\u6bb5\u628a\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u64f4\u5927\u5c0d\u96d9\u65b9\u90fd\u4e0d\u5229\u300d\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4f46\u53f3\u50be\u7684\u82f1\u570b\u667a\u5eab\u4ea8\u5229\u5091\u514b\u68ee\u5354\u6703\uff08Henry Jackson Society\uff09\u57f7\u884c\u8463\u4e8b\u5b5f\u591a\u85a9\uff08Alan Mendoza\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u9019\u6b21\u4e8b\u4ef6\u986f\u793a\u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u5167\u6230\u53ef\u80fd\u64f4\u5927\u5230\u524d\u6240\u672a\u898b\u7684\u570b\u969b\u898f\u6a21\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u300c\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u55ae\u65b9\u9762\u884c\u52d5\u548c\u5f37\u52e2\u59ff\u614b\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u53ef\u80fd\u767c\u751f\u8207\u897f\u65b9\u548c\u5317\u7d04\u90e8\u968a\u610f\u5916\u6216\u6545\u610f\u7684\u885d\u7a81\u3002\u300d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u300c\u4fc4\u570b\u5c0d\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u9078\u64c7\u5347\u9ad8\u6216\u51b7\u56de\u61c9\uff0c\u5c07\u6538\u95dc\u6230\u4e8b\u64f4\u5927\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u3002\u300d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u502b\u6566\u570b\u738b\u5b78\u9662\u570b\u969b\u548c\u5e73\u5b89\u5168\u8b1b\u5e2b\u5eab\u723e\u7279\uff08Natasha Kuhrt\uff09\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u9019\u6b21\u4e8b\u4ef6\u300c\u53ef\u80fd\u5e72\u64fe\u76ee\u524d\u56e0\u61c9\u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u5371\u6a5f\u6240\u505a\u7684\u5354\u8abf\u884c\u52d5\u9032\u5c55\u300d\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u571f\u8033\u5176\u70ba\u64ca\u843d\u4fc4\u8ecd\u6a5f\u8faf\u8b77<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4f0a\u65af\u5766\u5e03\u723e\u2014\u571f\u8033\u5176\u7e3d\u7406\u827e\u54c8\u9081\u5fb7\u00b7\u9054\u6b66\u7279\u5967\u76e7\u70ba\u5169\u67b6\u571f\u8033\u5176\u6230\u6597\u6a5f\u64ca\u843d\u4e00\u67b6\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u6230\u6597\u8f5f\u70b8\u6a5f\u5927\u529b\u8faf\u8b77\u3002\u5b89\u5361\u62c9\u7a31\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u98db\u6a5f\u5728\u8972\u64ca\u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u76ee\u6a19\u6642\u4fb5\u72af\u4e86\u571f\u8033\u5176\u9818\u7a7a\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4ed6\u8aaa\uff0c\u6574\u500b\u4e16\u754c\u90fd\u61c9\u7576\u660e\u767d\u5e76\u78ba\u4fe1\uff0c\u5728\u9019\u9053\u706b\u5708\u4e4b\u5167\uff0c\u571f\u8033\u5176\u6703\u76e1\u4e00\u5207\u52aa\u529b\u4fdd\u885b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u548c\u5e73\u8207\u5b89\u5168\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u9054\u6b66\u7279\u5967\u76e7\u63a5\u8457\u5c0d\u4efb\u4f55\u8972\u64ca\u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u7d44\u7e54\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5eab\u723e\u5fb7\u4eba\u3001\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u4eba\u6216\u571f\u5eab\u66fc\u4eba\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u767c\u51fa\u8b66\u544a\u8aaa\uff0c\u571f\u8033\u5176\u767c\u51fa\u7684\u8a0a\u606f\u662f\u660e\u78ba\u7684\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5b89\u5361\u62c9\u4e00\u76f4\u5f37\u70c8\u6279\u8a55\u4fc4\u8ecd\u6700\u8fd1\u5c0d\u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u571f\u5eab\u66fc\u4eba\u767c\u52d5\u7684\u7a7a\u8972\u3002\u571f\u8033\u5176\u8a8d\u70ba\u9019\u4e9b\u571f\u5eab\u66fc\u4eba\u548c\u571f\u8033\u5176\u4eba\u540c\u5c6c\u7a81\u53a5\u6c11\u65cf\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4e0a\u661f\u671f\uff0c\u571f\u8033\u5176\u5916\u4ea4\u90e8\u53ec\u898b\u4e86\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u5927\u4f7f\u5e76\u8b66\u544a\u8aaa\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4fc4\u8ecd\u7e7c\u7e8c\u8972\u64ca\u571f\u5eab\u66fc\u6751\u838a\uff0c\u5c07\u9762\u81e8\u56b4\u91cd\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u5e76\u8aaa\uff0c\u571f\u8033\u5176\u7684\u4ea4\u6230\u898f\u5247\u9069\u7528\u4e8e\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6309\u7167\u9019\u4e9b\u898f\u5247\uff0c\u5728\u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u4e0a\u7a7a\u98db\u884c\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u98db\u6a5f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u9032\u72af\u751a\u81f3\u903c\u8fd1\u571f\u8033\u5176\u9818\u7a7a\uff0c\u571f\u8033\u5176\u8ecd\u968a\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u6514\u622a\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u83ab\u65af\u79d1\u8072\u7a31\uff0c\u90a3\u67b6\u88ab\u64ca\u843d\u7684\u8ecd\u6a5f\u5e76\u6c92\u6709\u9032\u5165\u571f\u8033\u5176\u9818\u7a7a\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u81ea\u5f9e\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u958b\u59cb\u5728\u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u5883\u5167\u7684\u7a7a\u8972\u884c\u52d5\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u4fc4\u571f\u7dca\u5f35\u95dc\u7cfb\u5c31\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u5347\u7d1a\u3002\u5b89\u5361\u62c9\u6307\u8cac\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u98db\u6a5f\u4fb5\u72af\u9818\u7a7a\u5e76\u9a37\u64fe\u571f\u8033\u5176\u8ecd\u6a5f\u3002\u83ab\u65af\u79d1\u548c\u5b89\u5361\u62c9\u90fd\u5728\u5927\u529b\u652f\u6301\u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u5167\u6230\u4e2d\u7684\u5c0d\u7acb\u6d3e\u7cfb\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u99c1\u65a5\u571f\u8033\u5176\u8d8a\u754c\u8aaa \u4fc4\u570b\u516c\u5e03\u8607\u6137\u8def\u7dda\u5716<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u8607\u613724\u578b\u6230\u6a5f\u5728\u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u908a\u754c\u906d\u571f\u8033\u5176F16\u6230\u6a5f\u64ca\u843d\u3002\u571f\u8033\u5176\u4ee5\u96f7\u9054\u5716\u4f50\u8b49\u4fc4\u570b\u6230\u6a5f\u8d8a\u754c\uff0c\u624d\u6703\u4f9d\u64da\u4ea4\u6230\u6e96\u5247\u958b\u706b\u64ca\u843d\u3002\u4fc4\u7e3d\u53c3\u8b00\u90e8\u96a8\u5f8c\u516c\u5e03\u6230\u6a5f\u8def\u7dda\u5716\u4fc4\u570b\u7248\uff0c\u99c1\u65a5\u571f\u8033\u5176\u7684\u8d8a\u754c\u8aaa\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af1\u67b6\u8607\u613724\u578b\u6230\u6a5f\uff08Su-24\uff0924\u65e5\u5728\u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u5883\u5167\u57f7\u884c\u4efb\u52d9\u6642\uff0c\u906d\u571f\u8033\u5176F16\u6230\u6a5f\u64ca\u843d\uff0c\u7406\u7531\u662f\u4fc4\u570b\u6230\u6a5f\u8d8a\u754c\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4e8b\u5f8c\u4fc4\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u666e\u4eac\u767c\u8868\u8072\u660e\uff0c\u5f37\u8abf\u300c\u98db\u6a5f\u662f\u5728\u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u5883\u5167\u8ddd\u571f\u8033\u5176\u908a\u754c4\u516c\u91cc\u8655\u589c\u6bc0\uff0c\u906d\u53d7\u653b\u64ca\u6642\u8207\u571f\u8033\u5176\u9818\u7a7a\u4e5f\u67091\u516c\u91cc\u7684\u8ddd\u96e2\u300d\uff0c\u4e26\u75db\u65a5\u571f\u8033\u5176\u7684\u884c\u70ba\u300c\u5c31\u50cf\u662f\u88ab\u6050\u6016\u5206\u5b50\u7684\u540c\u8def\u4eba\u5f9e\u80cc\u5f8c\u6345\u4e86\u4e00\u5200\u300d\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u7e3d\u53c3\u8b00\u90e8\u8ecd\u4e8b\u767c\u8a00\u4eba\u9b6f\u8328\u79d1\u4f0a\uff08Sergei 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p><strong>\u7f8e\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u5967\u5df4\u99ac\u8aaa\uff0c\u4e00\u67b6\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u6230\u6597\u6a5f\u661f\u671f\u4e8c\u5728\u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u548c\u571f\u8033\u5176\u908a\u754c\u88ab\u8a18\u9304\u8b49\u660e\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u5728\u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u7684\u8ecd\u4e8b\u884c\u52d5\u201c\u6709\u554f\u984c\u201d\uff0c\u571f\u8033\u5176\u201c\u6709\u6b0a\u4fdd\u885b\u5176\u9818\u571f\u548c\u9818\u7a7a\u3002\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5967\u5df4\u99ac\u7e3d\u7d71\u5728\u548c\u6cd5\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u5967\u6717\u5fb7\u806f\u5408\u8209\u884c\u7684\u65b0\u805e\u767c\u5e03\u6703\u4e0a\u8aaa\uff0c\u4ecd\u5728\u6536\u96c6\u6709\u95dc\u571f\u8033\u5176\u64ca\u843d\u4e00\u67b6\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u8607-24\u6230\u6597\u6a5f\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u8ecd\u6a5f\u7684\u76ee\u6a19\u662f\u7dca\u9130\u571f\u8033\u5176\u908a\u754c\u7684\u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u6eab\u548c\u53cd\u5c0d\u6d3e\u7d44\u7e54\u3002\u4ed6\u6566\u4fc3\u96d9\u65b9\u201c\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52d5\u907f\u514d\u4efb\u4f55\u7dca\u5f35\u5347\u7d1a\u201d\uff0c\u5e76\u8868\u793a\u9019\u6b21\u4e8b\u4ef6\u986f\u793a\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u8fc5\u901f\u8d70\u5411\u5916\u4ea4\u65b9\u5f0f\u89e3\u6c7a\u6558\u5229\u4e9e\u6c96\u7a81\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u65e9\u4e9b\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u7e3d\u7d71\u666e\u4eac\u5728\u571f\u8033\u5176F16\u6230\u6a5f\u64ca\u843d\u4fc4\u6230\u6a5f\u540e\u6307\u8cac\u571f\u8033\u5176\u5411\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u201c\u80cc\u540e\u6345\u5200\u201d\uff0c 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